Coronavirus "Cone of Uncertainty"

If you live in Florida, you understand hurricanes. They are scary, often destructive and always disrupt normal life. Today, Coronavirus is affecting nearly everything in our lives and I wanted to draw an interesting parallel between COVID-19 and an arriving hurricane that should hit home (metaphorically speaking).

The “Cone of Uncertainty” is a shape placed on a map showing the predicted path of a hurricane. The further out into the future, the wider the cone gets. Over the years, predictive modeling for hurricanes has gotten significantly better, thus the cones of uncertainty are relatively narrow these days. These smaller cones save lives and help the right people and the right places prepare.

Today, the entire world is facing the effects of Coronavirus which is impacting our health, our economy and our personal lives in unfathomable ways. Each day, we wake to ripple effects of product shortages, wild price fluctuations and constantly changing guidelines and regulations.

Specific to real estate, Coronavirus also is having its effect. COVID-19 has changed the way people can “see” homes, predominantly via virtual tours these days, mortgage rates, mortgage availability, pricing and a slew of other important market conditions.

As a Realtor®, I study key pieces of information every day and apply them to a constantly-changing real estate market. In short, I am creating a hyper-local “Cone of Uncertainty” for my clients. And, although I am not saving lives, I am very much saving people time, money and possible disaster when it comes to their real estate interests.

At the moment, no one knows exactly how each town, village and city is going to open up. We don’t know the scope, velocity or impact. Our modified ‘new normal’ will happen. I am not talking doomsday scenario here. But, I am cautioning that making an uneducated move in buying, selling or leasing real estate can cost you.

Speaking to multiple loan officers every day helps me to understand if a loan product is available, what requirements have changed, how long the process is taking and what rates can be achieved. This narrows my “Cone of Uncertainty”.

Surveying other agents, brokers and my active clients daily as to the sentiment of the market gives me unique and hyper-local focus on showing activity, the deal pipeline and other technical aspects of real estate. This allows me to piece together the likely path to success in a real estate transaction. Thus, it narrows my “Cone of Uncertainty”.

I think the days of For Sale by Owner are temporarily on hold. It is only the highly-skilled and active real estate professional that can traverse these rapidly changing waters. If you are thinking of doing something in real estate, please allow me to give you today’s “Cone of Uncertainty”. Together, we can make the best of our current COVID-19 world.